prediction markets

🎯 Prediction Markets & Crowd Forecasts

🎲 Polymarket

Prediction market probabilities

• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Vol $876,151
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Vol $510,369
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Vol $395,701
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Vol $355,788
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? Vol $303,280
• Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Vol $143,566
• Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Vol $132,050
• Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? Vol $107,869
• Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 17? Vol $84,106
• Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on October 16? Vol $73,123
• Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on October 17? Vol $66,879
• Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on October 16? Vol $62,504
• Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on October 16? Vol $59,917
• Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Vol $57,178
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Vol $53,780

📊 Kalshi

Event contract prices

• US real GDP growth in 2036? Vol $0
• US headline CPI inflation in December 2036 Vol $0
• US nominal GDP growth in 2036 Vol $0
• US unemployment rate at year-end 2036 Vol $0
• US labor force participation rate at year-end 2036 Vol $0
• Fed funds rate at end of 2036 Vol $0
• US real GDP growth in 2035? Vol $0
• US headline CPI inflation in December 2035 Vol $0
• US nominal GDP growth in 2035 Vol $0
• US unemployment rate at year-end 2035 Vol $0
• US labor force participation rate at year-end 2035 Vol $0
• Fed funds rate at end of 2035 Vol $0
• US real GDP growth in 2034? Vol $0
• US headline CPI inflation in December 2034 Vol $0
• US nominal GDP growth in 2034 Vol $0

🐦 X / Twitter

Finance community discussion

Investing.com

• Anthropic signs lease for first Canadian data center
• Anthropic quietly pitches its own AI safety bill to lawmakers, Politico reports
• Grynspan holds lead for next UN chief as race enters decisive stage
• US lifts restrictions on new Mexican flights from capital’s airports
• Tesla shares caught up in tech rout despite new Roadster with flight capabilities
• LA restaurant group used $60,000 Dodgers bet to hedge playoff risk, Kalshi says
• Novavax shareholder Shah Capital to step back from activist role
• Exclusive-Boeing sales chief McMullen to retire, company memo says
• Mexico stocks higher at close of trade; S&P/BMV IPC up 1.87%
• SoftBank weighs $18 billion acquisition of Allied Universal, source says

MarketWatch

• MarketWatch.com - Top Stories
• Nowhere to hide: Tech selloff hits software and chip stocks alike
• This Senate race where data centers are a crucial issue has more spending than any other midterm clash
• Could an Anthropic IPO put your 401(k) at risk? The AI safety debate hits a new dimension.
• The bond market shrugged off two inflation shocks. Why stock investors should pay attention.

---

Crowd Sentiment (from market questions): 🟢 Bullish (score: +0.14)

45 markets shown · Data from Polymarket, Kalshi, Twitter